Labour is back?
By Jade Pallister, Director of Energy and Infrastructure
The Winter Fuel announcement became a defining political moment in summer 2024. Plagued by internal crisis and attacks on donations, Labour Conference was cautious. A “Ming Vase” and “managed expectations” strategy that crushed all hope and resulted in a record decline in popularity.
These challenges we saw in these first few months became the same that would define Keir Starmer.
The crucial test of Burnham will be how he manages the first 100 days; if he can maintain momentum; deliver a national vision (that MPs and activists buy-into); and if he prevents his politics of personality being enveloped by the incumbent state.
I would argue these 100 days should have three key messages:
Labour is Back The central political task is rebuilding Labour’s coalition of progressive voters. The language of “change” is exhausted. We need something simpler and more powerful. The last few years set the foundation on which something bolder will be built. Labour is back.
Britain Owned by Britain Britain should be owned by Britain. Too much of the country is owned by distant and unaccountable actors. Our high streets. Our utilities. Our communities. The Manchester model provides an alternative tradition: local control and public ownership. Thames Water is the first test.
Britain is secure Change without security creates anxiety. A government that pursues transformation while failing to reassure people on the fundamentals - the economy, national defence - will lose the mandate it needs to deliver that transformation. It means sound public finances and a credible plan for growth. It means a new relationship with business - built on partnership and long-term investment, not extraction.
Setting the scene: key set-pieces in the first few months:
1. Thames Water Special Administration: The creditor restructuring plan for the water company is due to reach court in the coming weeks. This gives the government a short-time period to act to put Thames Water into Special Administration. This would stabilise a failing company and restructure its finances and governance, while making available a range of options on exit, including mutualisation, or not-for-profit, or public-interest ownership models, using less extractive financial models with lower costs of debt.
2. An international visit: One of the strongest achievements of the Starmer government was restoring Britain’s international credibility. A Burnham government should build on it. An early international visit should reinforce the message: Britain is stable at home and respected abroad. The government’s foreign policy is one of continuity and confidence. A visible handover moment with Starmer, where that can be arranged, would reinforce the message that this is a government in control of its own story.
3. Labour Conference: The narrative begins to take shape in September. The weeks leading into Conference should carry a sequence of announcements building momentum around all three messages. Conference itself should be the moment the Burnham government’s offer crystallises - not just for the party membership but for the country.
4. Segmented voter campaign in run up to Conference: The government’s argument should be reinforced through targeted communications throughout the summer.
a. Labour is Back. Targeted at Labour members, former Labour voters and Green switchers. This should be led by Burnham.
b. Ending Rip-Off Britain. Targeted at Green and Reform switchers. This can be led by the Thames Water announcement.
c. Britain is Secure. Targeted at Liberal Democrat and swing Conservative voters concerned about stability. This should be led by the Chancellor.
Managing internal risks
The transition creates a window of goodwill that will close faster than anyone expects. The risks that undermined the Starmer government - commitments that could not be delivered, internal tensions, a media environment that preyed on a sense of ‘chaos’, will remain.
A plan is required for:
1. Expectation management: Reportedly Andy’s weakness. Over the next few weeks there needs to be a list drawn up of all the policies over the next year. Delivery needs to be tested with the Treasury and key stakeholders, focus groups, and polling (independent from the party machine) for their reaction. Where positions are unsustainable, they need to be dropped and communicated. The party needs to avoid raising the hopes of MPs and the public while being unable to fulfil them. This is the most reliable way to destroy the authority a new Prime Minister needs to govern.
2. Party management: Starmer’s government was repeatedly undermined by internal tensions. The Prime Minister must set a clear vision and bring MPs into it. Burnham must invest genuine time in the Parliamentary Labour Party - visible, available, and willing to bring MPs into his thinking. Senior Cabinet ministers should each take personal responsibility for maintaining regular contact with groups within the PLP. The party should feel it is being led, not administered.
3. Personal Burnham-led attacks: It is inevitable that this will happen – things that have been previously said, actions that he has taken in the past. Ed Miliband’s team will be all too familiar with this - the responses need to be decided now.